Downzoning - Part III (Tysons Corner)

Would it make sense for the typical resident of Fairfax County for the Board of Supervisors to adopt a new Comprehensive Plan for Tysons Corner that included some level of downzoning? I suspect that, if they thought about it from a purely analytical perspective, the supervisors would not increase density at Tysons Corner, but would decrease it. Since Gerry Connolly has received more than $160,000 in campaign contributions from the real estate industry, I doubt that facts and analysis will play much of a role. But if they did, a rational BoS would likely conclude that the level of existing buildings and those already approved exceed the capacity of our infrastructure to support them. A sensible person would not vote to add more people and cars that would choke the area to death. Ten sensible supervisors would most assuredly vote to downzone the area.

If we already have more jobs at Tysons than can be filled by local residents, adding new jobs in that location means even more people will commute to the area. Why should existing businesses and residents suffer further degradation in their quality of work and life so that people living outside the county can drive to and from Tysons? The added tax revenues won't pay for the costs of the infrastructure. County data show that, despite the huge building boom and a much lower office vacancy rate, the percentage of real estate taxes paid by commercial properties is at its lowest level in many years. The rate is around 17.3% and has dropped for six or seven years straight. This is a situation where taxpayers loose money on every new building, but make it up on volume.

It is certain that builders will construct some very nice new condos at Tysons, but it is equally true that those units will be very expensive. Land costs are high; construction material costs are going up much faster than inflation; and the cost of constructing any building above three or four stories is excessively expensive. In sum, the builders cannot afford to construct any housing that does not carry a high price tag. Proffers in the range of 8% affordable housing units won't permit worker housing. Only executives, professionals and middle management would likely be able to afford to live at Tysons. The rest of the workers must still commute. Moreover, Census Bureau data show that most people don't want to live in dense, urban locations. They want single family homes. Expensive, dense housing at Tysons will not meet the needs of many people.

The roads cannot handle today's traffic, and the Commonwealth states that the Silver Line will not reduce traffic volumes. Why would anyone want to add traffic to Tysons?

The current crop of supervisors regularly puts the interests of developers and large landowners ahead of those of small business and ordinary citizens. Fairfax County does not even attempt to collect sufficient proffers to construct the infrastructure necessary to support additional people. It won't happen at Tysons.

Under these circumstances, the average resident of Fairfax County would be best served if the BoS were to reject any requests for more density at Tysons and amend the Comprehensive Plan to take away density for those locations where new construction has not started or plans been improved. Let's downzone Tysons Corner.