In View of Construction Cost Increases, the Silver Line Needs a New Look
I love small local newspapers, regardless of their political bent. Their reporters cover stories that the MSM regularly ignores. Being small and local means that they need to be good to survive. They tend to care more about reporting than advancing the editor's goals, such as raising taxes, ala the Washington Post.
The Connection newspaper just ran a story discussing the recent problems with Fluor's plans to build four HOT lanes on the Beltway between Springfield & the Dulles Toll Road. http://www.connectionnewspapers.com/article.asp?article=72418&cat=109 Fluor would construct these lanes and keep the tolls until 2065. Car pools and transit buses could use the lanes for free.
The last estimate of the costs for constructing 14 miles of these lanes and associated improvements ws $900 M. However, with the huge run-ups in construction materials and energy, the HOT lanes project's costs also seem to be spiraling out of control. Fluor has apparently been trying to find at least $150 M from either the federal or Virginia government.
Perhaps, we (or at least state and local government officials) should pause to ask whether this cost escalation of 16% -- or more? -- might be telling us something. If Fluor's estimated costs are up by 16%, just how valid is the current estimate of $4 B to construct the Silver Line? At a minimum, one could reasonably assume that today's cost estimate would hit $4.64 B. And that's before adding in the costs for a tunnel, which is apparently back in play, at least in the minds of some. Moreover, that's an awful lot of money for something that does not improve traffic congestion. See my blog entry for September 9, 2006.
I suspect that the Commonwealth knows this and is concerned that higher costs will jeopardize federal funding for the entire project. I would not be surprised to learn that cost escalation factors alone caused Governor Tim Kaine to make the decision not to support the tunnel option. Kaine's decision was right then and remains correct today.
But Kaine should go further than this. He needs to have state government take a fresh look at the likely costs for completing this project before he commits to it. Those new costs need to be made public now. Kaine's decision to turn the Silver Line project to the MWAA was the right one, but the MWAA cannot ignore economic reality. There is a good chance that the Silver Line, as proposed, has become unaffordable.
The Governor should also take a second look at returning the Silver Line to the median of the Toll Road. Keep it out of Tysons. Return the Silver Line to being a transportation issue, instead of being a means to enable more development at Tysons Corner. It's time to put the public interest above that of the big landowners.
The Connection newspaper just ran a story discussing the recent problems with Fluor's plans to build four HOT lanes on the Beltway between Springfield & the Dulles Toll Road. http://www.connectionnewspapers.com/article.asp?article=72418&cat=109 Fluor would construct these lanes and keep the tolls until 2065. Car pools and transit buses could use the lanes for free.
The last estimate of the costs for constructing 14 miles of these lanes and associated improvements ws $900 M. However, with the huge run-ups in construction materials and energy, the HOT lanes project's costs also seem to be spiraling out of control. Fluor has apparently been trying to find at least $150 M from either the federal or Virginia government.
Perhaps, we (or at least state and local government officials) should pause to ask whether this cost escalation of 16% -- or more? -- might be telling us something. If Fluor's estimated costs are up by 16%, just how valid is the current estimate of $4 B to construct the Silver Line? At a minimum, one could reasonably assume that today's cost estimate would hit $4.64 B. And that's before adding in the costs for a tunnel, which is apparently back in play, at least in the minds of some. Moreover, that's an awful lot of money for something that does not improve traffic congestion. See my blog entry for September 9, 2006.
I suspect that the Commonwealth knows this and is concerned that higher costs will jeopardize federal funding for the entire project. I would not be surprised to learn that cost escalation factors alone caused Governor Tim Kaine to make the decision not to support the tunnel option. Kaine's decision was right then and remains correct today.
But Kaine should go further than this. He needs to have state government take a fresh look at the likely costs for completing this project before he commits to it. Those new costs need to be made public now. Kaine's decision to turn the Silver Line project to the MWAA was the right one, but the MWAA cannot ignore economic reality. There is a good chance that the Silver Line, as proposed, has become unaffordable.
The Governor should also take a second look at returning the Silver Line to the median of the Toll Road. Keep it out of Tysons. Return the Silver Line to being a transportation issue, instead of being a means to enable more development at Tysons Corner. It's time to put the public interest above that of the big landowners.
posted by Toomanytaxes at 7:26 AM
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